Tag Archives: investment

Optimism Colors Shifting Views of Development Market

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Biotech Could Benefit From Open Office Space

Written By: Colin A. Young

This article was originally published by The State House News on September 15, 2020.

SEPT. 15, 2020…..Commercial real estate and development experts said they are confident that the pandemic won’t spell the end of the development boom in and around Boston, but they said they are keeping their eyes on consumer and workforce trends that might reshape their industry.

During a virtual panel convened by NAOIP Massachusetts, the development pros said that while the COVID-19 pandemic slowed construction timelines and injected generous doses of uncertainty into the equation, development still has plenty of track in front of it in the Boston region.

“We operate between Boston and Washington, D.C., and I think that Boston is clearly the strongest market of those three and maybe the strongest market in the country,” Shawn Hurley, president of Marcus Partners said, referring to the Boston, New York City and Washington, D.C., markets. “It certainly seems that development in this market remains really strong and that our economy is more diversified than ever before. So we feel very good about the Boston market and how we’re positioned today, albeit in a very volatile world and as we enter what appears to be a potentially very volatile fall.”

Lauren O’Neil, senior managing director at JLL Capital Markets, said she doesn’t foresee a persistent slowdown in development in the Boston area. After desirable long-term investment-grade tenant leases, she said development appears to be second on the investment strategy depth chart.

“I think the thesis is that we may be in a bit of a slowdown now, but in two to three years when a project is set to deliver it sets up nicely for the rebound in this current slowdown, I won’t go as far as to call it a recession. And so we’ve seen investors and debt capital alike gravitating towards new developments,” O’Neil said. “And in fact, it’s probably easier right now to capitalize on new ground-up development than it is a value-add office deal, for example, where you might have 70 percent occupancy and you’re trying to get to 90 percent occupancy in the near term. There’s just more conviction on what the world will look like in a couple years versus over the next six months.”

O’Neil said hotels and retail developments are struggling to get financed right now. Retail developments with a grocer and that have “a compelling story” might fare better, she said.

“But with the delinquency rate on existing loans in the mid-teens for those product types, it’s going to be a bit of a challenge to get those C-Suites on board with making any sort of aggressive bets on retail and hotel for the foreseeable future,” she said.

Chris Brown, CEO of construction management firm John Moriarty & Associates, said biotech remains one of the hottest sectors in the marketplace right now and the “great need” for added research and lab space has not been diminished by the pandemic. At the same time, there’s “a little hesitancy” to commit to any deals involving traditional office space, given the uncertainties around the future of remote working and the return of most employees to the office.

“Biotech is probably the sector of the market that … will have the most traction moving forward,” he said.

Tamara Small, the CEO of NAIOP Massachusetts who moderated Tuesday’s discussion, asked Brown about converting office space to research or lab space, citing conversations she’s had with people who have suggested that “biotech is the new office.” Brown said his firm is working to “reposition” some office space at the Cambridgeside Galleria and has “a few other projects in the pipeline that look to take existing office space and potentially either add on to it or reposition it for biotech and lab space.”

“That seems to be one of the hottest sectors for us and the most interesting questions we get is in regards to that type of product as well,” he said.

O’Neil said converting office spaces to research or lab space for life sciences and biotech companies could help meet some of the demand for those spaces sooner than the pipeline of new construction could on its own.

“The demand from the tenants on the life science side was growing at an annual growth rate of a little over 8 percent and it’s projected to continue through 2023 at just over 7 percent, which if you look at the current 25.7 million square foot market, that means there’s demand for over 34 million square feet,” she said. “We’re about 3 million short of meeting that demand based on the current pipeline for 2023. Now, that generally includes only ground-up, brand new developments, so maybe the conversion factor will start to fill in some of that.”

The panel also took on the suburbs and the question of whether the pandemic, and the changes it has brought to commutes and daily life, is creating a time for the suburbs to shine and draw even more people out of urban cores. In July, real estate market analysts at the Warren Group said increases in sales in more rural parts of Massachusetts were “far in excess” of the state average.

“Cities are going to endure. The intrinsic qualities that brought everybody to them pre-COVID, we’re going to appreciate them all the more when this ends, and it will end. So we just envision a totally different kind of lifestyle returning when we’re through this,” Abe Menzin, a principal at the development firm Samuels & Associates, said. “In my more optimistic moments, I actually think that remote work options for people could actually enhance the vitality of cities. It could help shave the peaks off of some of the congestion issues that we’ve encountered, and could give people more flexibility in their lifestyle and make a livable city like Boston even more liveable.”

Kirk Sykes, a managing partner at Accordia Partners, is banking on people continuing to want to live in Boston but said aspects of two of his most significant projects aim to address concerns that the pandemic has highlighted. Sykes is involved in the plan to redevelop the site of the Boston State Hospital into a development with more than 360 housing units near Franklin Park and Mass. Audubon’s Boston Nature Center and Wildlife Sanctuary in Mattapan. He’s also part of the plan to convert the old Bayside Expo site in Dorchester into more than 1,000 units of housing, retail space, office space and more.

“We feel extremely blessed to have a 65-acre park, and the beach and the ocean in front of Bayside. And as such, I think those characteristics will play heavily into corporate relocations for campuses or even the decision to get on the train and go for five minutes to Kendall [Square] as opposed to being in Kendall,” he said. “So we’re designing in the desire to be in an environment that gives you the air, the light, the breath, the view that you might get in the suburbs, but getting it in a 20-minute bike ride, 30-minute walk or five-minute Uber/Lyft to the Financial District.”

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09/15/2020

Highlights from Boston: The Investment World’s Newest Heavyweight

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Elisif_20140417_6337This post was submitted by T.J Winick, Vice President at Solomon McCown.

Event Photos  |  Curbed article  |  Banker & Tradesman article  |  Recap Video

NAIOP’s recent event, Boston – The Investment World’s Newest Heavyweight, assured us once again that Boston is in the city to invest in when it comes to commercial real estate.

Throughout the event, panelists including Charles River Realty Investors President Brian Kavoogian, Cushman & Wakefield New England Area President Rob Griffin, AEW Managing Director Bob Plumb, DivcoWest CEO Stuart Shiff, and Blackstone Principal Jacob Werner touted Boston’s young and vibrant workforce along with its high level of innovation, top-notch schools and universities, and impressive CRE market. “[Here in Boston] it’s a very well educated labor force that draws from traditional financial services, technology and a growing biotech business,” said Werner.

The city is the 5th largest office market in the U.S. and is currently second only to San Francisco in terms of CRE vacancies. While panelists made several favorable comparisons between Boston and the “City by the Bay”, San Francisco is, unquestionably, the leader in development. It has a total of 3.5 million square-feet under construction at the moment, compared with Boston’s 2 million square-feet. San Francisco’s overall rental rates are overall back at 2007 levels while Boston remains approximately 20 percent below 2007 rates; in fact, Boston’s rental rates are still considered “cheap.” However, based on the city’s similarities (coastal, hubs of innovation) and with the belief that San Francisco is a bellwether, Boston’s CRE outlook remains bullish. “There’s real scarcity in [Boston] and scarcity is how you ultimately create value,” noted Kavoogian.

Another area of comparison: Massachusetts trails only California when it comes to NIH Funding. According to Cushman’s Griffin, Massachusetts General Hospital alone receives more NIH dollars than 90% of states. He also noted how the biotech and biopharmaceutical sectors continue to add more and more jobs and create new drugs. “If you’re a global investor and you look at Boston,” said Plumb, “you’ve got all the ingredients for job growth.” And the Boston area’s hottest markets for start-ups (Boston, Cambridge, and Waltham) have experienced an impressive 318 new deals as the market has bounced back. “Focusing on those markets that are both gateway and technology-related markets has been appealing to us,” said Shiff.

In addition to those three markets, there is also hope for Boston’s Central Business District (CBD) despite all the Seaport District’s development. The CBD is currently experiencing 15 percent in rent growth. The panel felt that once the CBD integrates more residential and retail projects into its urban dynamic, it will become “gold”.

Although the panel’s take was overwhelming positive, they did caution listeners to keep a couple of things in mind: Boston has 25,000 new apartments (many which are luxury) inside Route 128 currently under construction. It’s crucial the region creates jobs that meet those rents and attracts a suitable workforce. Also, in terms of capital markets, the industry needs to start thinking about rising interest rates–which are likely to increase as the economy continues to slowly improve.

Strategies for Today and Predictions for Tomorrow

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The following blog post was submitted by Ally Quinby, Account Executive at Solomon McCown.

NAIOP Massachusetts’ Smart Money in Real Estate event, on September 19, gathered together a distinguished panel of Boston’s real estate professionals to discuss the state of today’s market, as well as their predictions for the future.

To set the table for the event, NAIOP MA disseminated a poll to members regarding their current perceptions and future predictions. Doug Poutasse, Executive Vice President, Head of Strategy and Research at Bentall Kennedy, and moderator of the panel, leveraged the results from the poll during the discussion.

In regards to real estate investment, Jeff Furber, CEO of AEW Capital Management, listed the four qualities investors are seeking currently: Safety, Income, Control and Liquidity. Tier 1 core costal markets like Boston have been a major beneficiary of this fact due to the lack of risk associated with investing in stable regions.

Similarly, Jon Davis, CEO of The Davis Companies, believes there are many value-add opportunities in healthier cities, “Here in Boston, we are transforming neighborhoods. Take Kendall Square and the Fort Point Channel; there is so much vibrancy in these areas.”

According to one panelist, what the Boston area is lacking is supply of retail space. Despite the recent buzz around grocery-anchored retail centers, Tom DeSimone, Executive Vice President of WS Development, believes centers like this are “overplayed” and the increase in food sold outside grocery stores across the country, in retail shops like Wal-Mart, will be a problem in the future. In agreement, Mark Weld, Managing Director of Clarion Partners, said, “Distressed debt is aggregating in grocery-anchored retail centers across the country that people thought were on the path to growth.”

Looking forward, all the panelists agreed the looming effects of sequestration raise many questions for real estate professionals across the country. Despite the increased activity seen in markets like Boston, New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., uncertainty of this type has its effects. According to Jon Davis, “cleaning up from sequestration is the single biggest risk” we are facing today. There is no indication of whether or not Congress is going to be able to come together.

General sentiment among the panelists regarding the economic future was mild, noting there will not likely be significant improvement or dramatic decline in the state of the market.  Instead, all panelists agreed success today—and in the future—will rely heavily on partnering with the right people for leverage. Especially in times like these, what matters is one’s character and ability to execute.

A Tale of Two Cities: Commercial Real Estate Investment in Boston

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The BBJ reports that a PricewaterhouseCoopers national survey confirms what we, here in Boston, have been seeing for this past year, that real estate values are living a double life.  There is a very healthy market here for core assets with low vacancies and long term leases – long enough to get through this downturn and, hopefully hit inflation in rents.

With low interest rates, credit becoming more available for credit worthy borrowers, and a ton of investor money looking for low risk real estate investments, cap rates are falling (and prices are climbing for sellers.)  More owners are considering the sale of their properties, not only due to financial pressures, but because this is a good market to sell class A properties into.  There are already a number of apartment projects that have hit the street with asking prices in the 4-6% cap range – and they will most likely sell at those prices.

Except for the other real estate. You know, the kind of property that the opportunity funds were looking to buy at a deep discount.       

Oh that there were more of that product out there.  But that is the problem.  Generally, banks and/or regulators have not pushed borrowers over the cliff (ala 1990s.) So, with limited core and distressed product and a crush of investor dollars, there is no sign that prices will moderate anytime soon for the quality stuff, or that the problem property will be priced to sell.

At the NAIOP Main Event breakfast: “Investors Unplugged,” this seemed to be the theme.  But there were some concerns voiced even about the core quality product.  The big question seemed to be can you buy at the current low returns and have an exit strategy that justifies the acquisition price.  What if interest rates rise?  Generally, cap rates rise too.  And if you can’t count on cap rates dropping to appreciate your investment, then you must be convinced that vacancies are going to drop sufficiently for rents to go up.  Will that happen in all markets?  Only those with the ability to grow the job market.  (Note, Massachusetts employment has been relatively flat from 1990 to 2010!)

And for those distressed properties counting on leasing up the vacancies, how long an absorption period are you plugging into your underwriting assumptions and how much will those rents need to rise?

Lastly, the answer to the question for each of the NAIOP participants of what can you pay for an asset today, was what is the appropriate rate of return on your capital?  That is going to be very different for the pension fund, opportunity fund, sovereign fund or REIT.

So, get ready for a bumpy ride through 2011.  Some players are rooting for the FDIC to pull the plug on life support, while others are just looking for a little more forebearance.  How that works out will be the key to the pricing of real estate product.