Here are my last predictions as CEO of NAIOP (but not my last predictions)!
- Wayfair will double their occupancy in Boston.
- Boston and Cambridge Office rental rates will rise to record levels for new space surpassing $120 psf.
- Apartment rental rates will be flat.
- WeWork will make a move to the suburbs.
- Electric bikes & scooters will be allowed in Boston (and then regretted).
- Bitcoin value will fall, other Cryptocurrencies will rise.
- Foreign investment in commercial real estate will drop.
- The stock market will hit an all time low and an all time high.
- The Fed will raise rates ¼% only once during the next year.
- Tiger Woods will win a major.
Below were my predictions for 2018. Not too bad!
1. Amazon will pass on Boston for a campus, but leave us with a great consolation prize. [Yes and 1mm sq. ft coming to the Seaport]
2. No Turnpike air rights project will start construction (ditto for 2019). [None, so far]
3. Fed. interest rates will be up 75 basis points by end of year. [50 basis points]
4. In Boston, more condos will be permitted than rental apartments (other than the neighborhoods). [Rental approved by BPDA: 33%/Condo: 67%]
5. An office or lab lease will hit $100 per square foot in Cambridge. [Boeing office, 314 Main St.: $106.63 Net effective rent]
6. Construction costs, on average, will be up 7%. [ to date, 6-7%]
7. More than one million SF of commercial space will commence on spec. [Office: Boston & Cambridge: 1,008,000 SF; Lab: Boston & Cambridge: 1,226,000 SF]
8. The 128 office market will show more transactions (both numbers and SF) than the downtown market. [Downtown wins]
9. Foreign buyers will begin to acquire major CRE property outside of Boston/Cambridge. [No]
10. And, yes, the Patriots will do it again. [Almost!]