My Top Ten Predictions for 2017

2017

2016 has been another great year for the commercial real estate industry.

Can we keep it going through 2017?  Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  1. Cap rates will finally start to rise in the Boston/Cambridge markets.
  2. A new Fortune 500 corporate HQ will relocate to Boston.
  3. Apartment construction starts will drop in downtown Boston.
  4. The Dow Jones Industrials will finish the year down.
  5. Fed interest rates will be raised twice.
  6. Foreign investment will increase as a percentage of total CRE sales in Boston.
  7. There will be a noticeable business migration from 495 to 128, 128 to Boston, and Cambridge to Boston.
  8. Drones will pilot consumer product delivery.
  9. An infrastructure bill will pass Congress and be signed by the President.
  10. No viable candidate will step forward to run against Mayor Walsh.

Bonus prediction:  Patriots will win the Super Bowl (I’ll be right this time!)

Below were my predictions for 2016. Okay, I blew the Patriots, but 2017 is a new year!

  1. Neither casino (Springfield and Everett) will get their final clearances and will certainly not start construction.
  2. The Fed will make another move up in the interest rates.
  3. Foreign investment will dominate investments in commercial properties in the Greater Boston area, but local buyers will still be the major high-end condo buyer.
  4. The Green Line extension will be redesigned at a lower projected cost and will move forward.
  5. Some Boston or Cambridge office leases will hit $90 PSF gross.
  6. The Northern Avenue Bridge will be approved to accommodate vehicular access.
  7. A major office lease will be penned for either of the spec Seaport buildings (Pier 4 or 121 Seaport Boulevard).
  8. A developer will be selected for the Winthrop Square garage site.
  9. Patriots win the Super Bowl!
  10. The Republican presidential convention will not reach consensus on the first 5 ballots.

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