2016 has been another great year for the commercial real estate industry.
Can we keep it going through 2017? Here are my predictions for the coming year:
- Cap rates will finally start to rise in the Boston/Cambridge markets.
- A new Fortune 500 corporate HQ will relocate to Boston.
- Apartment construction starts will drop in downtown Boston.
- The Dow Jones Industrials will finish the year down.
- Fed interest rates will be raised twice.
- Foreign investment will increase as a percentage of total CRE sales in Boston.
- There will be a noticeable business migration from 495 to 128, 128 to Boston, and Cambridge to Boston.
- Drones will pilot consumer product delivery.
- An infrastructure bill will pass Congress and be signed by the President.
- No viable candidate will step forward to run against Mayor Walsh.
Bonus prediction: Patriots will win the Super Bowl (I’ll be right this time!)
Below were my predictions for 2016. Okay, I blew the Patriots, but 2017 is a new year!
- Neither casino (Springfield and Everett) will get their final clearances and will certainly not start construction.
- The Fed will make another move up in the interest rates.
- Foreign investment will dominate investments in commercial properties in the Greater Boston area, but local buyers will still be the major high-end condo buyer.
- The Green Line extension will be redesigned at a lower projected cost and will move forward.
- Some Boston or Cambridge office leases will hit $90 PSF gross.
- The Northern Avenue Bridge will be approved to accommodate vehicular access.
- A major office lease will be penned for either of the spec Seaport buildings (Pier 4 or 121 Seaport Boulevard).
- A developer will be selected for the Winthrop Square garage site.
- Patriots win the Super Bowl!
- The Republican presidential convention will not reach consensus on the first 5 ballots.